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rapid pace Asian Crisis

There are many speculations about the causes of the Asian Crisis. From my
research I found out that there is quite a number of reasons for the Asian
currency crisis. There is a book called; The East Asian Miracle, which was
published by the World Bank. This book expressed the relationship between
government, the private sector, and the market. (See Hoover Digest 1998 No.3.
William McGurn. What went wrong?) The book talks about the economic bloom in
Southeast Asia. The East Asian countries borrowed a lot of money from the IMF
and World Bank and used it to create a better economy for themselves. I found
out that the following countries due to their reoccurrence during my research
experienced the bloom. The countries are as listed: South Korea, Indonesia, Hong
Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan. These countries
experienced a lot of growth, growth that even doubled the growth in the rest of
East Asia, and almost tripled the growth in Latin America. The economic miracle
started in South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore then Malaysia, Thailand,
Indonesia and the Philippines. These countries achieved very remarkable rates of
growth and development. They built high quality manufacturing industries from
clothes to computers. (What went wrong? Hoover Digest 1998 No.3 William McGurn)
In the paper written by William McGurn "What went wrong?", he
explained that the people's minds in Asia only understood the word miracle and
the banks failed to recognize the risks and credits of the bloom. The banks also
failed to realize that they were only being used as policy arms by the
government. The only word that stuck in people's minds in Asia was the word
miracle. They therefor forgot the fundamentals, which could be easily
understood. William McGurn said that the countries that suffered the most in the
Asian economic crash were the countries that were heavily engaged in the state
planning. 'This in turn lead to all manners of extravagant claims about
"Asian Values" and the idea that western concepts such as competition
really didn't apply" (William McGurn. What went wrong?) On February 19,
1998 a group of Hoover fellows and invited experts assembled in the Hoover
institution to discuss the likely causes for the crisis. The discussion pulled a
very large crowd in to the Hoover Stauffer Auditorium to hear what the
well-recognized economists, political scientists and historians had to say. The
panel came to an agreement that the crisis that started in Asia was due to
excessive short-term borrowing, risky investments by banks and flawed government
policies that permitted such investments. (See Hoover Institution Newsletter
Spring 1998) From the article; "Why did it happen?", on this web site:
www.megastories.com/seasia/why/why.htm, I found out that Asia had been
experiencing a miracle for the past 30 years, but they are now suffering a
crisis. These economies are now experiencing collapsing currencies and depleting
stock markets. The Asian countries at first borrowed a lot of money from the IMF
and the World Bank and used it to invest in certain unprofitable ordeals. "
The problem was bad in Thailand, where a succession of weak governments had
allowed money to flood into unwanted skyscrapers rather than investing in roads
and telecommunications, and education." (Directly from the article)
"The unwise spending was the worst in South Korea where the entire economic
system was based on governments encouraging banks to make cheap loans to big
conglomerates for continued expansion regardless of world demand."
(Directly from article) They borrowed the money in US dollars thinking that they
would have no problems paying the debts off, because their currency's exchange
rates were pegged to the US dollar. They borrowed money in dollars because their
own currency's interest rates were too small. In the middle of 1995, the US
dollar started to rise against most of the world's other currencies. Because the
Asian exchange rates of local currencies were pegged to the US dollar they rose
with the US dollar. The rise in value led to the Asian countries decrease in
exports. Their exports became less demanded and competitive in the worlds
market. For the economies to come out of the crisis and return to their normal
sale of exports, they had three options. They would have to let go of the dollar
value, wait for the dollar to depreciate against other currencies or buy local
currency from the moneylenders. They couldn't wait for the dollar to depreciate
because they were unsure of how long it might take. At first the Asian countries
borrowed money from the IMF and World Bank ... more

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US Economy Expansion

The
million (or should we say 'billion' now) dollar question is whether or not the
United States' economy will stay in it's record 107 month expansion (according
to the index of leading indicators) or come out of the boom and take a downturn
into a recession. Nobody, including the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan
Greenspan has a crystal ball to provide insight as to what will happen if
interest rates are raised, lowered, or left alone. However, Economists have
developed a set of indicators to aid in predicting when a recession is about to
occur and when the economy is in one. Indicators should not be mistaken for
predictors. They are simply forecasting tools, and like any forecast can be
misleading. The index of leading indicators that is reported in the popular
press shows our economy is still in an expansion. For the purposes of our
evaluation of the economy, we chose the Principle Economic Indicators tracked by
the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau under the Economics
and Statistics Administration at the U.S. Department of Commerce. There are
thirteen Principle Economic Indicators, and they fall into five major
categories: National Output and Income; Orders, Sectoral Production, and
Inventories; Consumer Spending; Housing and Construction; and Foreign Trade.
National Output and Income The first of the five major categories directly
relates to measuring the growth of the U.S. economy. National Output and Income
consists of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Income, and Corporate
Profits measurements. GDP is the primary measurement of growth and measures the
total amount of goods and services produced by governments, businesses, people,
and property located within the United States. Both real (adjusted for
inflation) and nominal (current value in dollars) data is collected for
computing the GDP. The base year for the real data is 1997. The GDP is normally
reported as an annualized quarter-to-quarter change. The reason this measurement
is vital to tracking the growth of the U.S. economy is self-explanatory. When
the economy is growing, both total income and total output are increasing.
Furthermore, a steady increase in the GDP is healthy for the economy. According
to the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. economic output has grown at an annual
rate of 2.5 to 3.5 percent since 1890. The preliminary estimate of GDP in the
fourth quarter of 1999 rose at a 6.9 percent annual rate, which is the strongest
gain since a similar increase in mid-1996. This is an increase from the initial
estimate of 5.8 percent and is consistent with the expectations of analysts. It
is also a reflection of the widespread upward increases among the major spending
components, including consumer spending, goods exported, and state and local
government spending. In the third quarter of 1999, GDP rose 5.7% as a result of
increases in Personal Consumption Expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment,
and exports. Personal Income is a measurement of total pretax income earned by
individuals, non-profit organizations, and private trust funds. It is expressed
at an annual rate also. The more Personal Income increases the greater the
potential for the American people to spend and save money, which directly
influences the growth of the U.S. economy. Personal Income rose .7 percent in
January, following an increase of .3 percent in December. The average monthly
increases in 1999 were .5 percent. Some extenuating factors affected income in
recent months, including cost of living increases in federal transfer payments,
a federal pay raise, and agricultural subsidy payments in January. Real
disposable income, income after taxes and adjusted for price changes, increased
by .7 percent. There was no change in December. The individual personal saving
rate rose from 1 percent in December, which was its low, to 1.4 percent in
January. Savings rates generally go down in the months October through May due
to Holiday spending (includes "paying off" credit cards). There are
two methods in which Corporate Profits are reported by the government.
"Tax-based" profits are derived from corporate tax returns, and
"adjusted" profits reflect earnings from current production. Just as
increases in Personal Income are vital to the growth of the U.S economy,
increases in Corporate Profits are just as important on an even larger scale.
The greater the profits, the more potential for growth. This in turn has a
direct effect on employment rates, spending, etc. Profits reported from current
production increased $3.7 billion in the third quarter of 1999. This is a
dramatic improvement from a decrease of $6.5 billion in the second quarter.
Profits would have been about $10 billion more than they were in the ... more

rapid pace

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